20 QUESTIONS · 5 TOPICS · MONTY HALL GAME · ABOUT 15 MINUTES

Your gut is great at many things. Probability isn't one of them.

In a room of just 23 people, there's a better than even chance two share a birthday. Twenty questions on how chance really works, each explained, then play the puzzle that fooled professional mathematicians. No sign-up, nothing saved.

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CHANCE TWO PEOPLE SHARE A BIRTHDAY
10 people12%
23 people51%
30 people71%
50 people97%
70 people100%
QUESTION 1 / 20 · BASICSEasy

You roll a fair die. What's the probability of an even number?

THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM

Stick or switch?

A car is behind one of three doors. You pick one. The host, who knows where the car is, opens another door to show a goat, then offers you the chance to switch. When this was published in 1990, thousands of readers, including many mathematicians, insisted the answer was wrong.

Pick a door.STEP 1 OF 2
YOUR RESULTS SO FAR
Sticking–0 wins in 0 games
Switching–0 wins in 0 games
Why switching wins 2/3 of the time: your first pick is right only 1 time in 3. The other 2 times the car is behind one of the other doors, and the host has just shown you which one it isn't. Switching turns your 1/3 into their 2/3.

What this probability test covers, in short

Twenty multiple-choice questions at upper-secondary to first-year university level, four on each of five topics: basic probability, counting, conditional probability and Bayes, distributions, and expected value. Several are classic puzzles where intuition misleads.

Dice and coins are fair unless stated. The test is our own and not normed.

By What's Your IQ · Reviewed 5 Oct 2026
Format
20 multiple-choice questions
Level
A-level / AP to first-year university
Bonus
Monty Hall game and 1,000-game simulator
Founded
Pascal and Fermat's letters on gambling, 1654

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